class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Alain Bertaud Public Salon ## Population, Planning, and Opportunity Cost in Vancouver ### Jens von Bergmann ### 2021-09-20 --- class: short-title ## Population, growth, and distribution [](https://doodles.mountainmath.ca/html/yvr_pop_timeline) --- ## How did we grow? .pull-left[ <!-- --> ] .pull-right[ Over the past 4 census periods overall Metro Vancouver dwelling growth continuously slowed. Population growth slowed at similar rates. Each individual municipality's population grew in line with it's respective dwelling growth. ] --- class: short-title ## What caused this growth pattern? [](https://mountainmath.ca/zoning_map) --- ## How do we enforce low density? .pull-left[ Zoning bylaws prevent the sharing of land in a variety of ways. * Limiting the number of dwelling units per lot * Limiting ability to share a dwelling unit by defining "family" and restricting kitchens * Limiting ability to subdivide by minimum lot size/frontage requirements Today I want to focus on the last one, minimum frontage and lot size requirements. ] -- .pull-right[ #### There is no method to these requirements, other than trying to freeze things in place at the time requirements came in.  ] --- class: short-title ## How did we end up with these rules? .pull-left.width60[ In the 70s and 80s housing pressure in Vancouver shifted and increasingly people tried to subdivide existing lots. Minimum frontage/size requirements became binding across Vancouver.  This 1980 newspaper clipping captures the dynamic of NIMBY pushback spurring the City to strengthened the requirements. ] -- .pull-right.width40[ #### This is what people tried to prevent <img src="images/skinny-house.png" width="90%"> ] --- class: short-title ## How much damage does this do? Just in the City of Vancouver alone, halving the minimum frontage/area requirements would [**unlock $43 billion of the opportunity cost**](https://doodles.mountainmath.ca/blog/2021/07/25/lots-of-opportunity-estimating-the-zoning-tax-in-vancouver/) that comes with preventing the sharing of land in jobs and amenity rich areas. <img src="https://doodles.mountainmath.ca/blog/2021/07/25/lots-of-opportunity-estimating-the-zoning-tax-in-vancouver/index_files/figure-html/zoning-tax-2-1-1.png" height="530px" style="margin-top:-25px;"> --- class: short-title ## Vancouver area commute patterns <iframe width="900px" height="530px" src="https://flowmap.blue/13Q-xsfL59XXPw7-3ue_9G9xab9FtYiL3S9vOZp-yJyY/embed?v=49.223692,-122.941214,9.39&a=1&b=1&c=1&d=1&lt=1&col=Default&f=45" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>